TRUTH WILL OUT



Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID (DRASTIC) lists Reaper's Dance on their website.

Since the earliest days of the pandemic, a small dedicated band of international sleuths called DRASTIC (Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID) have pursued the truth of the pandemic origins with bulldog tenacity. This group has been instrumental in unearthing almost all the critical documents that have driven the evidence towards a lab leak as the cause of this pandemic by piercing the wall of institutional obstructionism on both the US and Chinese ends of the globe. The work of DRASTIC is now being used by WHO, the US Congress, FBI and the White House in deciding the future directions of institutional policy governing all pandemic potential research.

It is an honor to be recognized by the DRASTIC team.

Reproduced below is the entire Chapter 6 of The Reaper's Dance detailing the full work of the DRASTIC team that underpins the current opinion that the COVID 19 pandemic that slaughtered 25 million people and producced damages in probable excess of $10 Trillion was the result of a lab leak.

The Reaper's Dance

Chapter 6

Gain of Function

From inability to let well alone, from too much zeal for the new and contempt for what is old, from putting knowledge before wisdom, science before art and cleverness before common sense, from treating patients as cases and from making the cure of the disease more grievous than the endurance of the same, good Lord deliver us.

—Sir Robert Hutchison, “The Physician’s Prayer”

 

Early Warnings

The process by which a virus natural to an animal host acquires the ability to infect a human requires the virus to acquire new capabilities to bind with human cell surface receptors and use the human cellular machinery for its replication and propagation or, in essence, a “gain of function.” This process can occur randomly in nature by just chance exposure, though in actuality, this leap from the natural animal reservoir of a virus to a human host often requires an intermediary host animal to facilitate the acquisition of these new human-specific functions. The process of such events is, fortunately, far from common. But ecological degradation and climate change has been altering the equation toward increasing the probability of such an event. Still, there have been prescient minds in the scientific community ringing the alarm bells of the risk of viral pandemics for years.

Experts and public figures have been variously warning of pandemic unpreparedness, pandemic vulnerabilities and risks, and pandemic inevitability since 2005.[1], [2], [3], [4] Indeed the growing ability of scientists to manipulate the genome of organisms by inserting foreign genes or deleting endogenous genes or splicing portions of genes from other species to create chimeric organisms with novel biological properties has raised alarm in both scientists, regulatory agencies and knowledgeable members of the public. Developments as early as 2001 by Jackson et al. who developed a strain of mousepox that overcame both natural disease-induced and vaccine immunity along with the separate complete synthesis of the polio virus made it clear that humankind had the potential to unleash upon itself a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.

These fears were given impetus in 2011, when scientists Yoshihiro Kawaoka, and Ron Fouchier, independently demonstrated a cross species jump of the avian influenza virus from birds to mammalian ferrets by repeatedly infecting ferrets with the avian virus. Such repeated exposure allowed the viruses to acquire the capability to spontaneously spread as a respiratory virus between ferrets without the aid of manual infection by the scientists. In addition, the mutations that the viruses had acquired in the process of adaptation to the cooler respiratory passages of the ferrets also conferred upon them the ability to be transmitted from one ferret to another as a droplet-transmitted infection.[5] The virus was now airborne! The firestorm of debate that followed had proponents hailing the merits of such work in furtherance of mankind’s understanding of virulence, transmissibility, and the fundamental determinants of immune resistance and vaccinology while opponents were aghast at the potential hazards of such research regarding accidental mutagenesis that could easily run amuck and unleash a global biologic catastrophe. [6], [7]

 

Moratorium on Doomsday

The growing drumbeat of such concerns , led a group of scientists in Cambridge, Massachusetts to form the Cambridge Working Group (CWG) in 2014, to push for a moratorium and tighter regulation on all potentially hazardous biologic research involving organisms of pandemic potential. The push by CWG was given greater urgency since it coincided with a series of unintentional lapses in laboratory safety at the CDC, FDA and USDA involving anthrax bacteria, samples of smallpox virus and H9N2 and H5N1 influenza strains.[8] The July 14, 2014, moratorium call on all research involving pathogens of pandemic potential, by the 18  member CWG which was endorsed by over three hundred scientists, academics, and physicians was ultimately followed by a decision of the White House Office of Science and Technology and the Department of Health and Human Services to institute a gain of function research and funding moratorium that lasted from October 2014 until December 2017.[9]

The world owes much of the ensuing evidence to the investigative work performed by members of the private group DRASTIC which is an acronym for Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating Covid-19. This group of globally widespread internet sleuths have managed to sleuth out and excavate a huge trove of diverse data that has enabled much of the world's policy bodies to penetrate the obfuscating wall of institutional obstructionism surrounding this pandemic. Widely acclaimed by agencies and news organizations as doing higher quality work than governments, some notable contributors in this effort both within and without the DRASTIC team include Gilles Demaneuf, William Bostickson, Prasanjeet Ray (aka The Seeker), Monali Rahalkar and investigative journalists of the Wall Street Journal.

EcoHealth and NIH

EcoHealth Alliance was created by Peter Daszak, a conservation biologist, in 2011 to foster a scientific and environmental alliance to understand the delicate balance between ecological health, its degradation, wildlife health, and human health. Daszak felt the combination of global warming, ecological degradation, and global freshwater crisis was increasing the probability for outbreaks of new diseases. It is well recognized that there currently exist many animal and plant microbes and viruses’ humans never encounter because human populations do not have significant contact with these wilderness flora and fauna. But Daszak saw ecological degradation, climate change, and freshwater decline as a trifecta of conditions creating a perfect storm for the emergence of new diseases. He argued that these conditions were reducing agricultural harvesting of protein, increasing contact between wild animals and humans, and pushing increased exposures due to pressure on human populations that were already under nutritional pressure. He felt that scientists were too siloed in their narrow disciplines. EcoHealth Alliance was conceived as an organization that would bring microbiologists, virologists, epidemiologists, climatologists, soil-science experts, agricultural experts, botanists, and zoologists in a cross-disciplinary network to study and map out the risks, as well as guide the development of visionary policies by governmental agencies.

It would seem inconceivable that such an organization would find itself in the eye of the firestorm surrounding the origins of SARS-CoV-2. On May 27, 2014, EcoHealth Alliance was awarded a $4.3 million RO1 grant (# R01AI110964) to fund research towards “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence”[10]. The research proposed to study bat coronaviruses of the type that caused the first SARS epidemic of 2003.[11] The original award was to run from 2014 in annual renewal increments till June 2023. As fate would have it the grant was not renewed after June 2019 after about $3.7 million dollars had been spent for reasons that will become evident. The Ecohealth grant was issued prior to the October 2014 NIH funding pause on all new pandemic-related research, and hence, NIH Grant # R01AI110964 slipped under the regulatory oversight radar and continued to operate. In addition, the wording of the grant research proposal was merely to identify the prevalence of coronaviruses in bat populations and to catalogue the possibility of an emergence. This stated aim appeared on surface innocuous enough to slip beneath the regulatory oversight radar that existed at the time. To make things more convenient, the grant was to be carried out overseas in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in collaboration with Daszak’s long-time collaborator Shi Zhengli who had long studied the type of bats that harbored SARS-type coronaviruses and was famous in China as the “batwoman”. The bat species (Rhinolophidae) that were the natural reservoir of these coronaviruses were residents of the cave systems in the mountains of Enshi prefecture in the Hubei province of China. Under the terms of the collaboration drafted, EcoHealth used some of the NIH funds to execute the research at WIV using WIV resources with EcoHealth being the grant prime recipient and the WIV as a sub-recipient. Daszak’s scientific relationship with Shi Zhengli, a WIV virologist, goes back to 2006, and the two have coauthored many papers on SARS-type bat coronaviruses. Another significant collaborator on the same project was Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill whose humanized mice bearing the human ACE-2 receptor would serve as an animal model to test the infectivity of SARS-type coronaviruses in the later years of the grant.

 

THE BASIS OF RO1 AI110964

Scientists do not submit grant proposals without knowing to some degree beforehand the answers to the questions they want to ask. Contrary to popular belief scientists do not ask for funding and then go out into the wilderness to conduct their research. Often what they want to study has already been studied by them to some degree and this forms the basis of the funding proposal. Both Daszak and Shi Zhengli already knew in 2014 that a certain cave in South China harbored bats that were capable of sickening humans with a respiratory illness but did not reveal this information in RO1 A1110964 grant proposal.

In 2020, Prasanjeet Ray of the DRASTIC team who was researching internet records of scientific publication on SARS-type infections in China, unearthed a masters and doctoral thesis of a Chinese student. The thesis, which was published in Chinese upon translation, revealed that in April 2012 six miners harvesting bat guano from a defunct copper mine near Tong Guan in Mojiang Hani county of the Yunnan province fell ill with a mysterious and serious respiratory illness[12],[13],[14] . Three of the six miners would eventually die. Biological samples from these patients were tested at the WIV and were positive for a SARS-type virus infection in at least 2 out of the 6 cases.

Records unearthed by the DRASTIC team revealed that Shi Zhengli proceeded to visit the Tong Guan mine in 2013 and collected at least 9 novel virus samples. An October 2013 paper coauthored by her, and Daszak in Nature announces the discovery of 2 novel bat coronaviruses isolated from the Chinese horseshoe bat species which she labeled as RsSHCO14 and Rs3367, Shi also announced the successful laboratory culture of a bat coronavirus strain that bore 99.9% identity with Rs3367 and therefore presumably was derived from the Rs3367 wildtype parent. This lab strain was given the name bat-SL-CoV-WIV1 and was found to infect human cells, civets, and bats via the ACE-2 receptor. Shi goes on to assert that “Our results provide the strongest evidence to date that Chinese horseshoe bats are natural reservoirs of SARS-CoV and that intermediate hosts may not be necessary for direct human infection by some bat SL-CoVs. They also highlight the importance of pathogen-discovery programs targeting high-risk wildlife groups in emerging disease hotspots as a strategy for pandemic preparedness”[15].

 

PRE-ADAPTATION TO HUMAN SPREAD

 The finding by the WIV scientists as detailed in the October 2013 Nature paper of bat coronavirus strains in the wild capable of direct transmission to humans without an intermediary animal host is important because what follows is that WIV and EcoHealth’s subsequent work was all concerning derivatives of this progenitor bat virus strain. One of the first observations of epidemiologists and virologists in Dec2019 and Jan 2020 was that SARS-CoV2 was not behaving as if it were a virus freshly entering the human population for the first time. Most viruses that jump from animals to humans go through a period of host adaptation. It is like a dating game between a boy and a girl pairing up for the first time. The initial interactions are tentative as the virus evolves towards its best fit to its host. So, in such cases, the initial spread is hesitant and sporadic. By contrast, the COVID-19 illness produced by SARS-CoV2 was spreading like wildfire in November and December 2019. The initial Ro of the virus in November and December 2019 (Ro is a co-efficient of its transmissibility and virulence) was estimated at 2.5 to 4.0, with some estimates of as high as 6.5. Essentially a Ro of 3 means that each infected individual would infect three additional individuals before the disease ran its course in that person. To provide some perspective Ebola has a Ro of 1.5. The SARS-CoV2 virus was behaving as if it was already well adapted to its human host. Such a situation would be true under two scenarios. 1) SARS-CoV2 was already circulating at low levels in the human population for some time prior to 2019. But apart from the 6 cases of the Tong Guan miner’s illness there was no evidence of SARS-like illness between 2013 to September 2019. In addition, the level of exposure of the miners in the Tong Guan cave to bat genetic material through contact with bat excreta and inhaled particles within the closed environment of the mine's narrow passages at depths of up to 150 feet, ensured that the infective inoculum that these 6 patients experienced would have been extremely high. That spoke to an initial wild-type strain with a low virulence and transmissibility. This would explain the scenario of a lack of other cases in the 7 years after April 2012, where the bat viruses with human infective capability would have existed in that region, but the virus would not readily spread into the human population spontaneously on a random casual contact and would instead require high concentrated exposure to the virus.  2) The SARS-CoV2 was a human-capable bat virus, to begin with that had subsequently acquired an enhancement of its virulence capability that enabled its wildfire spread once it got the opportunity to infect even 1 or 2 individuals. But how did that happen? To investigate that we must turn back the pages of events by a few years.

 

A UNIQUE BREED

Scientists are a unique breed of individuals.  In addition to exceptionally high levels of intelligence, and analytic and deductive logic, collectively they exhibit personality traits of unbridled curiosity, innovative thinking, a willingness to boldly test boundaries and to design methods and tools to further this thirst for satisfaction of their intellectual hunger. For the most part, the scientific community is also possessed of high indices of integrity and a moral code of beneficence to humanity. But this code of beneficence is always in juxtaposition and in some respects subservient to the end goal of all scientists’ endeavors, which is to continually satisfy their intellectual curiosity. The means of achievement of that end goal is based on employing the tools of their intellect and a willingness to push boundaries. The events that followed the 2014 moratorium on the gain of function research must be viewed in this context of the innate tendency towards intellectual hubris of the scientific community in general. The three years that followed the CWG moratorium in 2014 were always suffered by the scientific community as a burden and resented by many as shackles on research that many virologists felt was overzealous regulatory oversight. Virologists engaged in pandemic research felt they knew the risks involved and that they knew better and were the best people to be trusted to conduct such research responsibly and safely. The power of the pharmaceutical-academic-regulatory complex is immense. So, when the Trump administration arrived with its philosophy of dismantling regulation at every level and unleashing the hounds of business and enterprise, the scientific community felt their time had come. In 2017 a group of thirty-seven scientists formed Scientists for Science and pushed for a resumption of research on dangerous pathogens arguing that such research was essential and that adequate safety measures existed to protect the public. [16],[17] This argument found a receptive ear with the Trump administration and in December 2017, the NIH resumed funding of gain-of-function research on pathogens of pandemic potential.[18]

 

GOFR and DURC

One of the key issues of debate is how to define what constitutes gain-of-function research (GOFR or “gopher”). GOFR may be defined based on (a) the design of the actual experiment or (b) the express intent of the experiment. For example, a GOFR experiment may be designed to specifically introduce a mutation in a microbial (bacteria or virus) genome to confer a new property the original organism (wild type) did not have. Even though the new function does not increase the organism’s virulence or pathogenicity, this would be classified as GOFR since there is a new function acquired.

An alternate example of GOFR would be the repeated manual passaging (exposure) of a microbe to a whole animal or animal cells in culture not a normal host of the organism to allow the acquisition by the organism of the ability to replicate and thrive in the new non-native cell or animal. Here, the intent is specific acquisition of extra-species infectivity and propagability by a microbe that hitherto would never have infected this new animal or cell.

It is this gray zone of potential interpretation of GOFR that makes the regulation of GOFR tricky. For example, a property like increased pathogenicity, transmissibility, and virulence may be a multistep process. A GOFR experiment may result in acquisition of a new nonpathogenic, nonvirulence function, but this new function can be a link in the chain, where the next step would be the acquisition of increased virulence and lethality. In this manner, the ball is tipped a little closer to the edge of chaos.

This is very well seen even in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The original wild type of virus prevalent from November 2019 till April 2020 spontaneously mutated into alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron variants with progressive increase in transmissibility. From a mechanistic perspective, each variant was becoming progressively better adapted to transmission, replication, and propagation in the human population. This, in certain respects, is nature performing GOFR, except it’s occurring as random chance over a huge number of iterative attempts.

So, when a government functionary declares to a congressional committee that its agency has never funded GOFR at any lab or research institution, the statement could be technically truthful but not really accurate based on how GOFR is being defined.

Due to the inherent difficulties of the definition of what constitutes GOFR, research on pathogens with potential for accidental release or potential for intentional release was classified as “dual use research of concern” (DURC) requiring additional regulatory and institutional oversight.[19],[20]  With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, critics of GOFR have been vociferous in emphasizing that the enhanced classification DURC should have been necessarily instituted on all bat virus research, even if the projects did not constitute actual GOFR manipulation of the viruses so isolated.[21]

 

DARPA DEFUSE PROJECT

In April 2018 EcoHealth submitted a $14 million multi-year bat coronavirus research proposal called DEFUSE that outlined its plans to isolate the viruses from the Tong Guan cave complex and engage in genetic recombination and GOFR research on these samples at the WIV. The researchers planned to create chimeric bat viruses and immunologically reactive spike protein vaccine conjugates that they proposed to reintroduce into wild free bat populations in the same Tong Guan cave system in a massive bat anti-SARS vaccination program. The intent was to carry out a genetic modification and immunological modification program of unprecedented scale and scope. DARPA rejected the DEFUSE research proposal in December 2018 because they deemed it too risky and because the proposal lacked appropriate safeguards for GOFR-DURC capable research[22]. Though the grant funding was turned down in its entirety, the DEFUSE proposal is alarming in its stated intentions. Once again, the existence of this rejected proposal would never have seen the light of day except for the work of the DRASTIC team who unearthed the evidence while sleuthing for answers to the COVID origins debate[23]. The experiments outlined in the DEFUSE proposal is a rare look into the thought process of the virologists at EcoHealth, the WIV and its collaborating institutions and raise serious long-term concerns about the continuing risk of pandemic grade research to humanity in our world today.

The concerns raised in the DEFUSE proposal belong to 4 categories.

1)     GOFR Experiments: The proposal detailed virulence-enhancing experiments that were proposed to be done on the Tong Guan mine bat viruses that already were capable of binding to human ACE-2 receptors and infecting human cells. The DEFUSE proposal planned to insert a Furin Cleavage Site (FCS) into the SARS-CoV spike protein structure. The FCS has long been recognized as a virulence-enhancing mutation in many viruses and as such the SARS-type coronaviruses do not commonly bear an FCS in their structure, though it is seen in other lineages of coronaviruses. As I mentioned earlier, scientists seldom write a grant detailing an experiment that they have not at least already attempted in a preliminary manner to ensure that they would be successful in the attempt. So the evidence of this intent reveals that the EcoHealth-WIV researchers were (a) thinking of ways to enhance the virulence of the human pathogenic bat coronaviruses they had harvested from the Tong Guan mine, and, (b) in all probability had already created a variant with precisely such an inserted FCS in the spike protein. It is also evident from the wording of the DEFUSE grant proposal that the researchers knew that their viruses were already capable of infecting human cells and already possessed at least epidemic-causing capability. “However, our test cave site in Yunnan Province harbors a quasispecies (QS) population assemblage that contains all the genetic components of epidemic SARS-CoV. We have isolated three strains there (WIV1, WIV16 and SHCO14) that unlike other SARSr-CoVs, do not contain two deletions in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike, have far higher sequence identity to SARS-CoV (Fig. 1), use human ACE2 receptor for cell entry, as SARS-CoV does (Fig. 2), and replicate efficiently in various animal and human cells.”

2)     DURC conflicts: The DEFUSE grant proposal requested monies  that were intended to pay WIV researcher's salaries at least in part. It is relevant the WIV is at least partly a Chinese military lab and conducts classified bioweapons work for the PLA in addition to non-classified civilian research. The idea of seeking US military agency funding of research with GOFR/DURC parameters in collaboration with a foreign governmental laboratory with military ties is alarming, to say the least. It is also evident that the researchers attempted to minimize this by including language that attempted to bypass P3CO (GOFR) and DURC framework restrictions by asserting that such risks did not exist, thereby demonstrating that the grant authors were not unaware that the DARPA reviewers may consider these conflicts.

3)     Poorly Regulated Wild Population Biologic modification: EcoHealth planned to conduct regular field visits to the Tong Guan cave to collect bat samples and to inoculate wild free-ranging bats with lab-engineered anti-SARSCoV vaccines to eradicate these viral strains in the bats themselves. The proposal offered no discussion of the existing level of understanding of the bat immune system and what could be the possible ecological ramifications of such unrestricted modifications of a wild free-ranging flying mammal population.

4)     Unregulated Transport of Infective Viral strains across international borders: EcoHealth proposed to ship viral samples overseas to collaborating investigators in UNC Chapel Hill and to Duke Universities Singapore campus for additional work.

“Samples will be preserved in viral transport medium, immediately frozen in liquid nitrogen dry shippers, and transported to partner laboratories with a maintained cold chain and under strict biosafety protocols.” They also assert that “Drs Shi, Zhang, and Daszak have collaborated together since 2002 and have been involved in running joint conferences, and shipping samples into and out of China.”[24]. This piece of evidence raises the question as to how many SARS strains are already floating in the US in the repositories of laboratories at UNC-Chapel Hill and other institutions and what is the level of oversight on these. The researchers also assert in the DEFUSE proposal that EcoHealth and its collaborating labs in China, Singapore, and the US already had more than 180 SARS strains that had not yet been examined for spill-over potential, and proposed that work on these strains would also be carried out in the laboratories of collaborating institutions in these countries.

 

On a scale of just scope and audacity the DEFUSE proposal is an example of a staggeringly risky endeavor. It is now well documented by multiple sources that Chinese researchers often entered these caves without appropriate PPE and handled bats in the field and in the lab in BSL-2 level biosafety environments. A BSL-2 level at its best is comparable to a researcher working with a surgical mask, gloves and lab coat in a laminar flow hood that is vented into the ambient environment without filtration of its outflow. At its worst, a BSL-2 would be no more than what exists in a dentist’s office. Though DARPA rejected this proposal citing biosafety and biosecurity concerns, the fact that these researchers saw fit to submit such a proposal reveals the operational culture of their research conditions and their own thought process of what these researchers would consider safe and responsible research.

 

Natural Emergence or Lab Leak

The question of the precise origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the pandemic it caused is still far from settled. The official consensus has so far been that the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 pandemic was the outcome of a natural spillover from bats to humans arising from proximity of each in the unsanitary wet market conditions of the Wuhan animal market. But ever since the early days, there have remained whispers of its origin as a lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The fact that the grant conditions and oversight exercised by the NIH on the grant awarded to EcoHealth Alliance and its collaborator, Wuhan Institute of Virology, had serious deficiencies in regulatory oversight is one of the factors cited by proponents of this view.

In addition, the lack of transparency afforded by Chinese authorities to investigative teams attempting to determine the pandemic origins has not helped settle the debate either. Investigators from the United States, Europe, and the WHO have repeatedly decried the Chinese government’s refusal to make available critical data that could help resolve key issues in the COVID-19 origins debate. The geopolitical ramifications of these investigations into the origins of a pandemic that has caused 25 million dead and nearly $9 trillion in global economic loss are astronomical, and hence, the barriers raised by the Chinese government are not entirely surprising.  Despite all that, the official view that COVID-19 “most probably” arose as a natural spillover event in the environment of the Wuhan wet market, even though it cannot be conclusively eliminated that it did not occur as an accidental leak from the WIV lab because of a lapse in biosafety protocols has recently come under serious challenge.

While multiple investigations by WHO teams and other teams into WIV as a potential source of COVID-19 have failed to establish a definitive link, it is now accepted that WIV did harvest bat species that harbored coronavirus strains closely related to SARS-CoV-2 that emerged in Wuhan. In addition, WIV engaged in experiments from June 2018 to June 2019, in which an engineered version of a bat coronavirus expressing SARS spike proteins was evaluated on transgenic mice expressing human ACE2 receptor. EcoHealth Alliance’s own final report to NIH from a section labeled “In vivo infection of Human ACE2 (hACE2) expression mice with SARSr-CoV S protein variants in year 5” is alarming, to say the least. [25]

Essentially the WIV/EcoHealth scientists created an animal model of transgenic mice that had been engineered to express the human ACE2 receptor on their cell surfaces. The WIV scientists took four different strains of recombinant bat SARS-CoV viral strains created by grafting different pieces of the Spike protein (S protein). While 3 of the 4 strains had only 50% mortality, the 4th  chimeric virus killed 6 out of 8 mice infected and the viral titers steadily increased as the days post infection increased until the viral load reached more than 109 genome copies/g at the demise point of the mouse. Autopsy and histopathological section examination revealed gross tissue lesions and lymphocyte infiltration in the lung which was maximal in the mice infected with the rWIV1-SHC014 S strain suggesting that the pathogenicity of SHC014 is higher than other tested bat SARSr-CoVs strains. The viral load of the chimeric rWIV1-SHCO14 strain-infected mice at the time of death was a staggering 1 billion genome copies per gram of mouse brain tissue, whereas three other chimeric viruses (rWIV1, rWIV1-WIV15S, and rWIV1-4231S) were undetectable in mice tissue by day four after infection.

Strikingly, the NIH deemed this experiment not a GOFR since the original viruses being studied were not viruses that were pathogenic to humans, a determination that is hotly contested by other virologists. Several virologists have called the relationship between the NIH and EcoHealth unduly cozy and point to a lack of true regulatory oversight and accountability.[26] Indeed, a review of all the data emerging in this saga strongly implies the parties may have done the equivalent of a wink and a nod to allow scientists to skate at the far edge of the boundaries of what could be defined as not GOFR or DURC in an effort to push the boundaries of zoonotic biology knowledge.[27]

 

 

SEPTEMBER 2019

A series of strange events in early September 2019 in the city of Wuhan point to a mysterious convergence of facts indicating that the pandemic may have arisen as a lab leak event at the WIV. Early reports suggested that three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had fallen ill with a respiratory illness of sufficient severity to be hospitalized in September 2019.[28] These illnesses would predate the first reported COVID cases in China by more than a month. The intelligence reported was derived from multiple sources and was described as of “exquisite quality” and very “precise.” These reports at the time were met with vehement rebuttals from the Chinese government and even from Western scientists who praised the scientific integrity of Dr. Shi Zhengli, who ran the coronavirus lab at WIV and who was the collaborator with EcoHealth Alliance on the NIH-funded SARS chimeric virus project described earlier. Dr. Zhengli’s work has been variously described by fellow scientists as very important and of the highest quality. But it must be noted that Dali Yang in a March 2020 report in the Washington Post detailed the Chinese government’s penchant for coverup of viral outbreaks, intimidation of whistleblowers and obfuscation[29],

On September 12, 2019, the WIV viral database repository of the gene sequences of every virus ever harvested or studied at WIV, that until then had been a publicly accessible resource for scientists worldwide, suddenly, and inexplicably went dark. Chinese authorities initially claimed that a massive server upgrade was being performed. Later the reason was modified to allegations that they were being hacked. To this date, the WIV database has not come back online. On the heels of this event, WIV administrative command was switched from civilian control to that of a Chinese military general. Lastly in the same month, an outside air-conditioning and ventilation contractor was brought in to perform a massive $606 million overhaul of WIV air handling and ventilation systems[30]. These findings were part of an 84-page memo released to the US House Foreign Affairs Committee in August 2021. Despite all this, the question of a lab leak essentially has foundered on the shoals of noncooperation by the Chinese authorities, who have, to this date, denied investigative teams access to key environmental data, biological samples, lab safety data, and other records from WIV and the Wuhan town from the earliest days of the pandemic. This fact was reiterated by FBI Director Wray who observed that the Chinese government has been doing its utmost to thwart and obstruct the work of US and other international agencies. [31]

It is now unofficially maintained by most scientists and nearly all US government agencies that the pandemic arose as an unintentional lab leak event due to a failure of biosafety protocols and practices in the WIV. It is widely accepted off the record that the researchers at WIV were engaged in GOFR research on human infection capable bat SARS-type coronaviruses with a high probability of virulence enhancement of the wild-type virus by introduction of a Furin Cleavage site. This coupled with the fact that these experiments were being performed in BSL-2 grade facilities with inadequate ventilation may have resulted in infection of one or more lab personnel who may have spread the virus elsewhere in the city. This event was aggressively suppressed by the Chinese government in the period from the end of August 2019 till January 2020 a behavior that is consistent with the Chinese government’s penchant for coverup of viral outbreaks, intimidation of whistleblowers, and obfuscation[32].

The fact that the research activities at the WIV had been at least partly funded by the US Government through the NIH is source of embarrassment to both Republican and Democrat sides of the aisle resulting in at least some reluctance to have an open dialogue into these mishaps. The situation was even more bluntly stated by Dr. Marty Makary, MD, MPH, at the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on February 28, 2023.  In forcefully direct testimony Dr Makary argued that the only reason that a debate existed over the origins of the pandemic is because of the embarrassing fact that the U.S. had funded bat coronavirus research in a high-level Chinese virology lab that was 5 miles away from the epicenter of the pandemic outbreak. He called it a no-brainer and said that any attempt to acquire more information would only confirm a lab leak as the source. [33]

But since January 2023, a series of disparate events have begun to point toward a quiet undercurrent of opinion in the US administration that new thinking on pandemic research and pandemic preparedness must prevail. The first of these events was a little-publicized report that was released on January 27, 2023. The National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) issued a draft report titled, “Proposed Biosecurity Oversight Framework for the Future of Science” with its latest recommendations on the subject of GOFR, Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight (P3CO), and DURC.[34] The report has recommended broadening the rules that determine whether proposed studies count as dual-use research to include work with all human, plant, and animal pathogens, even those causing only mild disease.[35], [36]

Then on February 10, 2023, a group of scientists announced the formation of a nonprofit organization called Protect Our Future to advocate for tighter biolab safety and to prevent “lab-generated pandemics that could threaten the survival of the human species.”[37]  Separately there was the public admission by FBI Director Christopher Wray in a Fox News interview on February 28, 2023, that the FBI had revised its assessment to come to the conclusion that the pandemic most likely arose as the result of a “lab incident” in Wuhan.[38] Director Wray observed that the issue at hand concerned the leak of a deadly pathogen from a Chinese government lab.

Director Wray’s statement represented the first official and significant escalation from the FBI’s prior assessment in 2021 that the bureau had only a “moderate confidence” in the lab leak theory.

The FBI assessment also represented the second US governmental agency to assert that the pandemic may have originated because of a breakdown in biosafety protocols. At around the same time as the FBI’s reassessment, the US Energy Department released a new assessment that the pandemic originated because of an accidental lab leak from a Chinese virology lab. Like the FBI, the energy department’s assessment was also a reversal from its previous opinion on the matter and was part of a classified intelligence report provided to the White House and select members of Congress and this was reported by the Wall Street Journal.[39]

In August 2023, the NIH terminated the subaward to the WIV of its original grant to EcoHealth Alliance on the grounds of material failure to comply with oversight requests and requests for access to lab notebooks. The other portions of the grant have been allowed to continue. Around the same time USAID began measures to terminate its ambitious, $125 million, global virus hunting project called DEEP VZN (pronounced Deep Vision) with a formal announcement of the closure in the first week of September 2023. The grounds for closure were based on a reassessment of the US Government pandemic preparedness priorities and a growing concern that such a project may well unleash the very pandemics they proposed to prevent.

The question of the COVID-19 pandemic’s origins is not one of political blame and shame gaming. It is imperative for humanity to understand how the greatest biological catastrophe of this century came about so we may be better able to forestall a future occurrence. The pandemic so far has resulted in measurable global monetary damage of at least $8.5 trillion and counting. The immeasurable damages are far higher by several orders of magnitude. If you begin to count the nearly 25 million lives lost, the millions of lives impaired by long COVID, the millions of children orphaned globally by loss of one or both parents, the millions of orphan minors consumed by human trafficking, the educational development lost, the generational wisdom lost by the mortality of seniors, the cost becomes incalculable. The search for answers is, therefore, not likely to cease any time soon, and neither should it ever if we as a species are to avoid becoming a victim of our own hubris.



[1] M. T. Osterholm, “[Preparing for the Next Pandemic],” Salud Publica de Mexico 48, no. 3 (2005): 279–85.

[2] H. Chen, G. J. D. Smith, K. S. Li, J. Wang, X. H. Fan, J. M. Rayner, D. Vijaykrishna, J. X. Zhang, L. J. Zhang, C. T. Guo, C. L. Cheung, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, K. Huang, K. Qin, Y. H. C. Leung, W. L. Wu, H. R. Lu, Y. Chen, N. S. Xia, T. S. P. Naipospos, K. Y. Yuen, S. S. Hassan, S. Bahri, T. D. Nguyen, R. G. Webster, J. S. M. Peiris, and Y. Guan,Establishment of Multiple Sublineages of H5N1 Influenza Virus in Asia: Implications for Pandemic Control,” PNAS 103, no. 8 (February 10, 2006): 2,845–50.

[3] Vaclav Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (MIT Press).

[4] William Gates, “The Next Outbreak? We’re Not Ready,” TED, https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI.

[5] M. Imai, T. Watanabe, M. Hatta, S. C. Das, M. Ozawa, K. Shinya, G. Zhong, A. Hanson, H. Katsura, S. Watanabe, C. Li, E. Kawakami, S. Yamada, M. Kiso, Y. Suzuki, E. A. Maher, G. Neumann, and Y. Kawaoka, “Experimental Adaptation of an Influenza H5 HA Confers Respiratory Droplet Transmission to a Reassortant H5 HA/H1N1 Virus in Ferrets,” Nature 496, no. 7,403 (May 2, 2012): 420–8, doi: 10.1038/nature10831, PMID: 22722205; PMCID: PMC3388103; E. J. Schrauwen, S. Herfst, L. M. Leijten, P. van Run, T. M. Bestebroer, M. Linster, R. Bodewes, J. H. Kreijtz, G. F. Rimmelzwaan, A. D. Osterhaus, R. A. Fouchier, T. Kuiken, and D. van Riel, “The Multibasic Cleavage Site in H5N1 Virus Is Critical for Systemic Spread along the Olfactory and Hematogenous Routes in Ferrets,” J Virol 86, no. 7 (April 2012): 3,975–84, doi: 10.1128/JVI.06828-11, epub January 25, 2012, PMID: 22278228, PMCID: PMC3302532.

[6] Barbara Holzer, Sophie B. Morgan, Yumi Matsuoka, Matthew Edmans, Francisco J. Salguero, Helen Everett, Sharon M. Brookes, Emily Porter, Ronan MacLoughlin, Bryan Charleston, Kanta Subbarao, Alain Townsend, and Elma Tchilian, “Comparison of Heterosubtypic Protection in Ferrets and Pigs Induced by a Single-Cycle Influenza Vaccine,” J Immunol 200, no. 12 (June 15, 2018): 4,068–77.

[7] M. Lipsitch, “Why Do Exceptionally Dangerous Gain-of-Function Experiments in Influenza?” in Influenza Virus: Methods in Molecular Biology, ed. Y. Yamauchi, vol. 1,836 (New York: Humana Press, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-8678-1_29.

[8] CDC Newsroom, CDC Releases After-Action Report on Recent Anthrax Incident, Highlights Steps to Improve Laboratory Quality and Safety, CDC Website, https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0711-lab-safety.html (anthrax); Jocelyn Kaiser, “Six Vials of Smallpox Discovered in U.S. Lab,” July 8, 2014, https://www.science.org/content/article/six-vials-smallpox-discovered-us-lab (smallpox); and Jocelyn Kaiser, “Scientists Call for limits on Creating Dangerous Pathogens, July 158, 2014, https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-call-limit-creating-dangerous-pathogens (H5N1-contaminated H9N2).

[9] J. l. Husbands, “The Challenge of FRAMING for efforts to Mitigate the Risks of ‘Dual Use’ Research in the Life Sciences,” Futures 102 (September 2018): 104–13; Marc Lipsitch, Kevin Esvelt, and Thomas Inglesby, “Calls for Caution in Genome Engineering Should Be a Model for Similar Dialogue on Pandemic Pathogen Research,” Annals of Internal Medicine, November 17, 2015.

[10] https://www.usaspending.gov/award/ASST_NON_R01AI110964_7529

[11] Understanding the risk of bat coronavirus emergence. Sept. 8, 2021. https://theintercept.com/document/2021/09/08/understanding-the-risk-of-bat-coronavirus-emergence/.

[15] Ge, XY., Li, JL., Yang, XL. et al. Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor. Nature 503, 535–538 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12711

[16] A. Edelmann, J. Moody, and R. Light, “Disparate Foundations of Scientists’ Policy Positions on Contentious Biomedical Research,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 114, no. 24 (June 2017): 6,262–67.

[17] W. P. Duprex, R. A, Fouchier, M. J. Imperiale, M. Lipsitch, and D. A. Relman, “Gain-of-Function Experiments: Time for a Real Debate,” Nat Rev Microbiol. 13, no. 1 (January 2015): 58–64.

[18] Francis S. Collins, “NIH Lifts Funding Pause on Gain-of-Function Research,” National Institutes of Health, December 19, 2017.

[19] United States Government Policy for Oversight of Life Sciences DURC. https://www.phe.gov/s3/dualuse/Pages/USGOversightPolicy.aspx 

[20] Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) Institutional Review Entity. https://oir.nih.gov/sourcebook/committees-advisory-ddir/dual-use-research-concern-durc-institutional-review-entity

[21] N. Shinomiya, J. Minari, G. Yoshizawa, M. Dando, and L. Shang, “Reconsidering the Need for Gain-of-Function Research on Enhanced Potential Pandemic Pathogens in the Post-COVID-19 Era,” Front Bioeng Biotechnol. 10 (August 26, 2022): 966,586.

[22] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal

[23] https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/21/the-defuse-project-documents/

[24] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal

[25] Understanding the risk of bat coronavirus emergence.  https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Year-5-EHAv.pdf.

[26] Sharon Lerner, Mara Hvistendahl, Maia Hibbett. The Intercept.Sept. 9, 2021. NIH documents provide new evidence U.S. funded Gain-of-Function research in Wuhan. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research/.

[27] Sharon Lerner, Mara Hvistendahl. The Intercept. Nov. 3, 2021. NIH officials worked with Ecohealth Alliance to evade restrictions on coronavirus experiments. https://theintercept.com/2021/11/03/coronavirus-research-ecohealth-nih-emails/.

[28] Michael R. Gordon, Warren P. Strobel and Drew Hinshaw. Wall Street Journal May 23, 2021. Intelligence on sick staff at Wuhan lab fuels debate on Covid-19 origin.  https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

 

[29] Dali L. Yang, “Wuhan Officials Tried to Cover up COVID-19—and Sent It Careening Outward,” The Washington Post, March 10, 2020.

[30] https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-lab-air-circulation-systems-were-defective-ahead-of-first-known-covid-cases-congressional-report-finds/

[31] Adam Sabes. Fox News March 1, 2023. FBI Director says Covid pandemic ‘most likely’ originated  from Chinese lab. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-director-says-covid-pandemic-most-likely-originated-chinese-lab

[32] Dali L. Yang, “Wuhan Officials Tried to Cover up COVID-19—and Sent It Careening Outward,” The Washington Post, March 10, 2020.

[33] MedPage Today Mar 1, 2023. Hopkins’ Makary tells lawmakers COVID lab leak a No brainer. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/103341

[34] Jocelyn Kaiser. Science. Jan 20, 2023. U.S. should expand rules for risky virus research to more pathogens, panel says.  https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-should-expand-rules-risky-virus-research-more-pathogens-panel-says

 

[36] Jocelyn Kaiser. Science Jan 30, 2023. U.S. Scientists brace for tighter scrutiny of potentially risky research. https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-scientists-brace-tighter-scrutiny-potentially-risky-research

[37] Jocelyn Kaiser. Science Feb. 6, 2023. Critics of risky virus studies launch nonprofit to push for research halt, tighter safety rules. https://www.science.org/content/article/critics-risky-virus-studies-launch-nonprofit-push-research-halt-tighter-safety-rules

[38] Adam Sabes. Fox News March 1, 2023. FBI Director says Covid pandemic ‘most likely’ originated  from Chinese lab. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-director-says-covid-pandemic-most-likely-originated-chinese-lab

[39] Michael R. Gordon, Warren P. Strobel. Wall Street Journal Feb 26, 2023. Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, Energy department now says. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a

 

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